As the number of satellites in orbit continues to climb, so does the risk of their remnants falling back to Earth, and into the path of commercial airliners. A 2025 study conducted by the University of British Columbia estimates a 26% probability that, within a year, uncontrolled space debris will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere over heavily trafficked airspace. And by 2030, the probability of an individual commercial aircraft encountering a piece of debris could reach 1 in 1,000, based on earlier modelling.
These particles pose a unique risk to jet engines, navigation systems, and fuselage integrity. While atmospheric entry typically burns up most of a spacecraft, some elements, particularly metallic and composite structures, can endure, retaining enough mass and velocity to inflict damage.
Virgili Bastida and his team recently published their findings in the Journal of Space Safety Engineering. Their work focuses on the challenges of determining when and where airspace should be closed due to potential re-entry threats, an issue that becomes increasingly complex as launch frequency rises.
https://dailygalaxy.com/2026/01/space-debris-could-soon-disrupt-flights/
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